Ontario’s COVID-19 Modeling

The premier of Ontario, Doug Ford, held a press conference today (April 3, 2020) where the modeling that experts in the public health health sector at Ontario Health, Public Health Ontario, and universities in Ontario have developed for the COVID-19 pandemic was presented. The slides with their results are in this PDF. I’m posting them here in case you weren’t able to watch the presser (I couldn’t but was forwarded the slides by someone who did).

Basically, the tl;dr version is: if there had been no interventions, we’d have been be really screwed; with the interventions that have been put in place so far, we’re only slightly screwed but heading for much worse if we maintain status quo; and by ramping up interventions (mainly closing more businesses as non-essential and getting more draconian in dealing with those who aren’t following recommended practices around physical distancing) the government hopes to limit how badly we get screwed to much lower levels.